Economic Survey

India Economic Survey 2025-26

Building Resilience in a Changing World

GDP Growth (Actual)

6.5%

Forecast: 6.0-6.5%

Inflation (CPI)

4.5%

Consumer Price Index

Wholesale Inflation (WPI)

2.1%

Wholesale Price Index

Fiscal Deficit

4.4% GDP

Union Budget (Revised Estimate)

Key Theme

Building Resilience in a Changing World

Key Highlights

GDP growth at 6.5% in FY25, projected 6.0-6.5% for FY26
CPI inflation averaged 4.5% during FY25
Fiscal deficit reduced to 4.8% of GDP in FY25
Current account deficit at 1.0% of GDP
Record GST collections reflecting economic formalisation
Digital payments crossed 15 billion monthly transactions
Infrastructure capital expenditure at Rs 11.1 lakh crore
PLI schemes attracted Rs 1.2 lakh crore in investments
Renewable energy capacity addition accelerated to 25 GW
Urban unemployment rate declined to 5.8%

Policy Recommendations

1 Maintain fiscal glide path to achieve 4.5% fiscal deficit by FY26
2 Enhance credit flow to MSMEs through guarantee mechanisms
3 Accelerate National Infrastructure Pipeline execution
4 Expand social security for gig and platform workers
5 Implement National Education Policy reforms comprehensively
6 Strengthen climate adaptation measures in agriculture
7 Promote exports through trade facilitation measures
8 Deepen financial markets and promote retail participation
9 Enhance urban governance and municipal finances
10 Invest in R&D and innovation ecosystem

Survey Predictions vs Budget Outcomes

Comparison between Economic Survey predictions and actual Union Budget allocations

Metric	Survey Prediction	Actual Budget	Deviation
GDP Growth (%)	6.0-6.5	6.5 (assumed)	At upper end
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)	5.0	4.8	-0.2%
CPI Inflation (%)	4.5	4.5 (target)	On target
Revenue Receipts (Rs Lakh Cr)	31.5	33.0	+Rs 1.5 Lakh Cr

Union Budget 2025-26 Summary

Corresponding budget data to read alongside the Economic Survey Revised Estimate

Total Receipts

49.63 lakh crore

Total Expenditure

49.63 lakh crore

Fiscal Deficit

14.33 lakh crore

Revenue Deficit

5.8 lakh crore

View Union Budget 2025-26 in detail

Detailed Analysis

The Economic Survey 2025-26 was presented in Parliament by the Finance Minister on January 31, 2025, ahead of the Union Budget. Prepared under the supervision of Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, the Survey provides a thorough review of economic developments during FY25 and the outlook for FY26. The Indian economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in FY25, achieving an estimated GDP growth rate of 6.5%, making India one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. The Survey notes that this growth was broad-based, with robust performance across agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors. Inflation management remained a key policy focus, with CPI inflation averaging 4.5% during FY25. The Survey credits the RBI's calibrated monetary policy approach and government measures to manage food prices through strategic stock management and trade policy interventions. The fiscal consolidation story continued to strengthen with the fiscal deficit improving to 4.8% of GDP in FY25, ahead of the originally budgeted 5.1%. Record GST collections, improved tax administration, and expenditure rationalisation contributed to this outcome. The Survey dedicates a special chapter to India's infrastructure transformation, noting the significant impact of the National Infrastructure Pipeline and PM Gati Shakti initiatives. Capital expenditure reached Rs 11.1 lakh crore, a five-fold increase from FY20 levels. The external sector remained robust with the current account deficit contained at 1.0% of GDP. The Survey highlights the growing importance of services exports, which crossed $340 billion, and the positive impact of bilateral trade agreements. On the social front, the Survey notes significant progress in health outcomes, education access, and financial inclusion. The Ayushman Bharat scheme covered 34 crore beneficiaries, while PM Jan Dhan accounts reached 52 crore. The Survey recommends a multi-pronged strategy for FY26 focusing on fiscal consolidation, infrastructure development, manufacturing growth through PLI schemes, agricultural modernisation, and climate change mitigation. It emphasises the need for continued structural reforms to sustain India's growth trajectory. Looking ahead, the Survey projects GDP growth of 6.0-6.5% for FY26, while cautioning about global risks including geopolitical tensions, volatile commodity prices, and potential financial market turbulence.

Source: Official Economic Survey Document

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Amrit Kaal: Sustaining Growth Momentum

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Inclusive Growth and Fiscal Consolidation

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